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    Championship · kickoff 19:45
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    Norwich City
    Norwich City
    18th in the table
    WLLLL
    We make it
    1-2
    3 goals expected
    Southampton
    Southampton
    11th in the table
    DWWLW

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match result
    Southampton or Draw@ 1.60
    6/10
    Southampton winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 64% between them. Only Norwich City winning beats it, at 36%.
    Goals
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.47
    5/10
    We make the total 3.0 goals, so Over 2.5 Goals lands 58%. The next line up, Over 3.5, is 35%.
    Both teams to scoreTop Pick
    Yes@ 1.44
    6/10
    We give Norwich City 77% to score and Southampton 79%, so both finding the net comes out at 60%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    36%
    Norwich City
    24%
    Draw
    40%
    Southampton

    The market rates Southampton at 34%, so we are 6 points higher than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 3 goalsWe make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    12.25
    X3.76
    22.76

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Norwich City

    Form comparison

    Southampton

    3.4
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    7.6
    Form score: Norwich City 3.4, Southampton 7.6
    1.80
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    2.10
    Goals scored: Norwich City 1.80, Southampton 2.10
    2.30
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.40
    Goals conceded: Norwich City 2.30, Southampton 1.40
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Norwich City mixed, Southampton mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Norwich City
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Southampton1/5
    1/5Norwich City
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Southampton0/5
    1.8Norwich City
    Goals For per game
    Southampton2.1
    2.3Norwich City
    Goals Against per game
    Southampton1.4
    2.2Norwich City
    Yellow Cards per game
    Southampton1.7
    0.1Norwich City
    Red Cards per game
    Southampton0.1
    0Norwich City
    Win Streakmatches
    Southampton1
    Season averages • Norwich City: 10 matches • Southampton: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Norwich City
    Norwich City
    Mixed3.4/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WLLLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    5/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Southampton
    Southampton
    Solid7.6/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    2W - 2D - 6L from Norwich City's perspective
    • 18 Mar 2026Southampton1-0Norwich
    • 13 Dec 2025Norwich2-1Southampton
    • 26 Aug 2025Norwich0-3Southampton
    • 01 Jan 2024Norwich1-1Southampton
    • 12 Aug 2023Southampton4-4Norwich
    Norwich City
    Norwich City
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsSwansea2-1L
    • 20 Sept 2026vsBolton3-4L
    • 17 Sept 2026vsManchester City5-0L
    • 12 Sept 2026vsMiddlesbrough4-3L
    • 09 Sept 2026vsBirmingham2-1W
    Southampton
    Southampton
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Oct 2026vsPortsmouth1-0W
    • 19 Sept 2026vsWrexham2-1L
    • 12 Sept 2026vsBristol City4-1W
    • 08 Sept 2026vsSwansea3-1W
    • 05 Sept 2026vsLincoln1-1D
    PosTeamPts
    9West Bromwich Albion14
    10Bristol City14
    11Southampton13
    12Charlton Athletic13
    13Blackburn Rovers12
    16Lincoln City11
    17Bolton10
    18Norwich City9
    19Portsmouth8
    20Watford8
    Updated daily

    Norwich City vs Southampton: form and season numbers

    Norwich City take a form score of 3.4 out of 10 into this Championship fixture, against 7.6 for Southampton. Norwich City have 1 win and 4 defeats in their last 5, while Southampton have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Norwich City average 1.8 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per game, Southampton 2.1 and 1.4. Norwich City have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches this season, Southampton in 10%. In their last 10 meetings Norwich City have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6. Norwich City sit 18th on 9 points, Southampton 11th on 13.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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