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    Serie B · kickoff 16:15
    Upcoming
    Padova
    Padova
    10th in the table
    WDLWL
    We make it
    1-1
    2.4 goals expected
    Carrarese
    Carrarese
    20th in the table
    LDLLL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultBanker
    Padova or Draw@ 1.22
    7/10
    Padova winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 68% between them. Only Carrarese winning beats it, at 32%.
    GoalsTop Pick
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.33
    9/10
    Under 3.5 Goals lands 79%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 58%.
    Second goals lineValue
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.92
    5/10
    We make the total 2.4 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 58%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 32%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    40%
    Padova
    28%
    Draw
    32%
    Carrarese

    The market rates Padova at 50%, so we are 10 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.4 goalsWe make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.88
    X3.44
    24.12

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Padova

    Form comparison

    Carrarese

    4.3
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    2.7
    Form score: Padova 4.3, Carrarese 2.7
    1.20
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    0.40
    Goals scored: Padova 1.20, Carrarese 0.40
    1.70
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.10
    Goals conceded: Padova 1.70, Carrarese 1.10
    strong
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Padova strong, Carrarese mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Padova
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Carrarese0/5
    0/5Padova
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Carrarese3/5
    1.2Padova
    Goals For per game
    Carrarese0.4
    1.7Padova
    Goals Against per game
    Carrarese1.1
    2.2Padova
    Yellow Cards per game
    Carrarese1.7
    0Padova
    Win Streakmatches
    Carrarese0
    Season averages • Padova: 10 matches • Carrarese: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Padova
    Padova
    Mixed4.3/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Carrarese
    Carrarese
    Poor2.7/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LDLLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    2/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 1D - 0L from Padova's perspective
    • 10 Feb 2026Padova1-0Carrarese
    • 31 Aug 2025Carrarese0-0Padova
    Padova
    Padova
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Sept 2026vsPalermo2-1L
    • 12 Sept 2026vsAscoli1-0W
    • 06 Sept 2026vsCremonese3-1L
    • 29 Aug 2026vsHellas Verona1-1D
    • 23 Aug 2026vsPisa0-1W
    Carrarese
    Carrarese
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Sept 2026vsBenevento0-1L
    • 12 Sept 2026vsCatanzaro1-0L
    • 05 Sept 2026vsEmpoli0-1L
    • 29 Aug 2026vsAscoli1-1D
    • 22 Aug 2026vsMantova1-2L
    PosTeamPts
    8Benevento10
    9Hellas Verona7
    10Padova7
    11Cesena7
    12Arezzo7
    18Catanzaro3
    19Juve Stabia2
    20Carrarese1
    Updated daily

    Padova vs Carrarese: form and season numbers

    Padova take a form score of 4.3 out of 10 into this Serie B fixture, against 2.7 for Carrarese. Padova have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Carrarese have 1 draw and 4 defeats in theirs. Across the season Padova average 1.2 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game, Carrarese 0.4 and 1.1. Padova have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Carrarese in 20%. In their last 2 meetings Padova have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 0. Padova sit 10th on 7 points, Carrarese 20th on 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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