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    World Cup · kickoff 03:00
    FT 0-0
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    3rd in the table
    LWDDL
    final
    0 - 0
    Australia
    Australia
    2nd in the table
    DWLDD

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultPush, stake returned
    DNB Paraguay@ 1.61
    7/10
    Paraguay's home advantage in South American conditions is significant. Form 6/10 vs Australia's 4/10, with Paraguay averaging 1.4 GPG at home. World Cup group stage matches favor the team better adapted to conditions.
    GoalsWin
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.36
    8/10
    Both teams averaging under 1.5 GPG (Paraguay 1.4, Australia 1.1). World Cup knockout-stage openers typically cagey, expect defensive discipline from both sides in a must-not-lose scenario.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    No@ 1.62
    7/10
    Australia's low 1.1 GPG and inferior 4/10 form suggest scoring struggles. Paraguay's home defensive setup typically solid in competitive fixtures, clean sheet likely.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how the market sees it finishing
    35%
    Paraguay
    41%
    Draw
    24%
    Australia

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    12.70
    X2.27
    24.00

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Paraguay

    Form comparison

    Australia

    2.9
    Form scoreout of 10
    3.6
    Form score: Paraguay 2.9, Australia 3.6
    1.20
    Goals scoredper game
    1.00
    Goals scored: Paraguay 1.20, Australia 1.00
    1.10
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.00
    Goals conceded: Paraguay 1.10, Australia 1.00

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Paraguay
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Australia2/5
    2/5Paraguay
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Australia2/5
    1.2Paraguay
    Goals For per game
    Australia1.0
    1.1Paraguay
    Goals Against per game
    Australia1.0
    0Paraguay
    Win Streakmatches
    Australia0
    Season averages • Paraguay: 10 matches • Australia: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    Poor2.9/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LWDDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Australia
    Australia
    Mixed3.6/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWLDD
    Over 2.5 goals
    0/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 1D - 0L from Paraguay's perspective
    • 26 Jun 2026Paraguay0-0Australia
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    Last 5 matches
    • 04 Jul 2026vsFrance0-1L
    • 29 Jun 2026vsGermany1-1D
    • 26 Jun 2026vsAustralia0-0D
    • 20 Jun 2026vsTürkiye0-1W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsUSA4-1L
    Australia
    Australia
    Last 5 matches
    • 03 Jul 2026vsEgypt1-1D
    • 26 Jun 2026vsParaguay0-0D
    • 19 Jun 2026vsUSA2-0L
    • 14 Jun 2026vsTürkiye2-0W
    • 06 Jun 2026vsSwitzerland1-1D
    PosTeamPts
    1USA6
    2Australia4
    3Paraguay4
    4Türkiye3
    Updated daily

    Paraguay vs Australia: form and season numbers

    Paraguay take a form score of 2.9 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 3.6 for Australia. Paraguay have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Australia have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Paraguay average 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, Australia 1.0 and 1.0. Paraguay have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Australia in 30%. In their last 1 meeting Paraguay have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 0. Paraguay sit 3rd on 4 points, Australia 2nd on 4.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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