What we would back
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Philadelphia Union at 69%, so we are 8 points lower than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Philadelphia Union
Form comparisonReal Salt Lake
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Philadelphia Union weak, Real Salt Lake strongThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 10 Oct 2026Philadelphia Union2-1Real Salt Lake
- 27 Apr 2024Philadelphia Union1-2Real Salt Lake
- 14 Jul 2019Real Salt Lake4-0Philadelphia Union
- 19 May 2018Philadelphia Union4-1Real Salt Lake
- 28 May 2017Real Salt Lake1-0Philadelphia Union
- 10 Oct 2026vsReal Salt Lake2-1W
- 26 Sept 2026vsOrlando City SC4-2W
- 20 Sept 2026vsSporting Kansas City3-4W
- 14 Sept 2026vsSan Diego0-5W
- 09 Sept 2026vsFC Cincinnati5-0W
- 10 Oct 2026vsPhiladelphia Union2-1L
- 27 Sept 2026vsNew England Revolution3-0W
- 24 Sept 2026vsSeattle Sounders2-0L
- 20 Sept 2026vsVancouver Whitecaps0-3L
- 13 Sept 2026vsNew York City FC0-2L
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake: form and season numbers
Philadelphia Union take a form score of 8.6 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 2.8 for Real Salt Lake. Philadelphia Union have 5 wins in their last 5, while Real Salt Lake have 1 win and 4 defeats in theirs. Across the season Philadelphia Union average 3.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Real Salt Lake 0.8 and 1.9. Philadelphia Union have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their matches this season, Real Salt Lake in 10%. In their last 10 meetings Philadelphia Union have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4. Philadelphia Union sit 6th on 42 points, Real Salt Lake 11th on 32.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake prediction: form gap looks enormous
Philadelphia Union arrive on the back of 7 wins from their last 10 and a run that reads almost like a different sport compared to Real Salt Lake's. The gap between 6th and 11th in the table, 39 points against 32, is only part of the story. Philadelphia Union have scored 29 and conceded 13 across their last 10 matches, with a clean sheet in 3 of those and a goal in 9 of them. Real Salt Lake, by contrast, have won once in 10, shipped 21 goals and kept just a single clean sheet. Formatic's form bands put it plainly: excellent for the home side, poor for the visitors, and a wide gap between them.
The Philadelphia Union attack has been relentless rather than cautious. Wins by 4-2 over Orlando City SC, 4-3 away at Sporting Kansas City and 5-0 at both San Diego and FC Cincinnati show a side that keeps finding the net regardless of opponent or venue, and their only blemish in this sequence was a 0-2 loss to Santos Laguna in the Leagues Cup, a competition carrying less weight than their league form. At 2.00 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game this season, with 54 scored in 27 matches, the goal difference of plus 10 tells the same story as the results list: this is a team pushing games forward at both ends.
Real Salt Lake have found almost nothing to build on. Eight defeats in their last 10 includes a 0-3 home loss to Vancouver Whitecaps, a 0-2 defeat at Seattle Sounders and a 1-2 loss away to Houston Dynamo, with their only win in that stretch a 3-0 home success over New England Revolution. Season-long underlying numbers back up the eye test: an expected goals figure of 0.77 per game against Philadelphia Union's 1.99, and they have failed to score in half of their matches this season compared to just 10 percent for their opponents. A goal difference of minus 4 at 11th in the table, with 44 conceded from 27 matches, points to a defence that has been breached repeatedly all year, not just in this bad run.
History offers Real Salt Lake some comfort that Philadelphia Union's current form cannot erase. Of the 9 meetings itemised, Real Salt Lake have won 4 to Philadelphia Union's 1, with 4 draws, including a 1-2 win in Philadelphia as recently as 27 April 2024. Goals have flowed in this fixture too, with 3.33 per meeting on average and over 2.5 goals in 7 of those 9 matches, both teams scoring in 6 of them. That head to head pattern suggests this is rarely a cagey affair even when the oppositions look mismatched on paper, and with Philadelphia Union's attack in such rich form against a Real Salt Lake defence shipping goals at pace, the shape of this one points toward Philadelphia Union pushing numbers on the scoreboard while Real Salt Lake's recent history in this fixture at least gives them a route back into it.
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