Alavés arrive at Racing Santander with a Formatic form score of 6.22 out of 10, comfortably ahead of the hosts' 4 out of 10 rating and establishing a 2.22-point gap in the visitors' favour. That disparity reflects sharply contrasting recent trajectories: while Racing have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last five outings, their mixed sequence includes two pre-season friendlies that carry less weight than competitive fixtures. The lone recent competitive reverse, a 2-0 defeat at Osasuna in late July, underlined vulnerabilities that persisted even through friendlies. By contrast, Alavés have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 across the same sample, scoring in all five matches and keeping three clean sheets. Their defensive organisation shows in both the raw numbers and the quality of opposition: a 1-0 victory at home to Barcelona on 13 May represents the standout result in either side's recent sequence, while subsequent friendly wins over Eibar and Girona maintained momentum into pre-season.

Racing Santander's attacking output across those five fixtures totals 10 goals scored, spread across 4 of the 5 matches, but they have failed to register a single clean sheet in the sample. That defensive fragility is a persistent theme: they conceded 6 goals across the five, including two in the Osasuna friendly and one apiece in draws with Real Sociedad and Malaga. The bright spots came in Segunda División home victories over Cadiz and Valladolid, both finished 4-1, but those emphatic scorelines came in the second division and the step up in class poses obvious questions. Alavés, meanwhile, conceded just 3 goals across their last five and have built a defensive platform that has translated into clean sheets in 30 percent of their 8-match seasonal sample. Their season profile shows 12.5 shots per game and 4.2 shots on target, generating 1.3 expected goals per match while holding 40.1 percent possession and averaging 5.6 corners. They have yet to be shut out in their sample, failing to score in 0 percent of games, and the consistency of their output, evidenced by five consecutive matches with at least one goal, suggests a side capable of controlling tight encounters.

The head to head record across the last four meetings heavily favours the visitors: Racing have no wins, Alavés have 2, and the remaining 2 fixtures ended level. The most recent clash, a 0-0 draw in July 2024, was the only fixture in the sequence that failed to produce a winner, while Alavés claimed 2-1 and 3-0 victories in 2023 and another 1-1 draw in November 2022 completes the set. Across those four meetings, the average is 2.0 goals per game, both teams have scored in 2 of 4, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 2 of 4. The pattern suggests narrow contests with Alavés typically edging the decisive moments.

Racing's home advantage may provide some platform, particularly given their ability to post high scorelines in Segunda División fixtures at this venue, but their defensive record remains the glaring concern against opponents who have scored in every match of their recent run. Alavés failed to score in 0 percent of their seasonal sample and have kept clean sheets in 30 percent, a combination that points toward control rather than chaos. The visitors' 1.3 expected goals per game and their ability to grind out 1-0 results, demonstrated three times in the last five, frames this as a fixture where defensive discipline and clinical finishing could separate two sides whose form scores already suggest a gulf in readiness. The head to head data, the defensive metrics and the form gap all converge on the same conclusion: Alavés have the tools to extend their recent run of wins and Racing's patchy form offers little to suggest they can reverse a sequence in which they have beaten these opponents precisely zero times in four attempts.