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    Champions League · kickoff 20:00
    FT 1-0
    RB Leipzig
    RB Leipzig
    32nd in the table
    LLWLW
    final
    1 - 0
    PSV
    PSV
    19th in the table
    WDWLW

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    RB Leipzig or PSV@ 1.18
    9/10
    The draw is the only result that beats this, and we make it 23%. RB Leipzig and PSV cover the other 77% between them.
    GoalsWin
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 2.19
    5/10
    We make the total 3.4 goals, so Under 3.5 Goals lands 56%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 34%.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 1.33
    7/10
    We give RB Leipzig 82% to score and PSV 82%, so both finding the net comes out at 67%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    39%
    RB Leipzig
    23%
    Draw
    38%
    PSV

    The market rates RB Leipzig at 60%, so we are 21 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 3.4 goalsWe make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.60
    X4.85
    24.72

    How this scoreline is calculated

    RB Leipzig

    Form comparison

    PSV

    6.9
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    7.9
    Form score: RB Leipzig 6.9, PSV 7.9
    2.70
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    2.70
    Goals scored: RB Leipzig 2.70, PSV 2.70
    1.40
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.50
    Goals conceded: RB Leipzig 1.40, PSV 1.50

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5RB Leipzig
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    PSV1/5
    1/5RB Leipzig
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    PSV0/5
    2.7RB Leipzig
    Goals For per game
    PSV2.7
    1.4RB Leipzig
    Goals Against per game
    PSV1.5
    1.4RB Leipzig
    Yellow Cards per game
    PSV1.9
    0.0RB Leipzig
    Red Cards per game
    PSV0.2
    1RB Leipzig
    Win Streakmatches
    PSV1
    Season averages • RB Leipzig: 10 matches • PSV: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    RB Leipzig
    RB Leipzig
    Solid6.9/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LLWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    PSV
    PSV
    Solid7.9/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 0L from RB Leipzig's perspective
    RB Leipzig
    RB Leipzig
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsEintracht Frankfurt6-0W
    • 20 Sept 2026vsBayer Leverkusen2-0L
    • 13 Sept 2026vsHamburger SV5-0W
    • 10 Sept 2026vsComo4-1L
    • 05 Sept 2026vsWerder Bremen3-1L
    PSV
    PSV
    Last 5 matches
    • 09 Oct 2026vsHeerenveen2-0W
    • 20 Sept 2026vsTwente3-2L
    • 13 Sept 2026vsSparta Rotterdam4-1W
    • 10 Sept 2026vsShakhtar Donetsk1-1D
    • 05 Sept 2026vsAjax1-3W
    PosTeamPts
    17AS Roma1
    18Shakhtar Donetsk1
    19PSV1
    20Fenerbahçe1
    21Villarreal0
    30Galatasaray0
    31FC Porto0
    32RB Leipzig0
    33Feyenoord0
    34Sabah FA0
    Updated daily

    RB Leipzig vs PSV: form and season numbers

    RB Leipzig take a form score of 6.9 out of 10 into this Champions League fixture, against 7.9 for PSV. RB Leipzig have 2 wins and 3 defeats in their last 5, while PSV have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season RB Leipzig average 2.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, PSV 2.7 and 1.5. RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, PSV in 10%. RB Leipzig sit 32nd on 0 points, PSV 19th on 1.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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