Real Madrid welcome Sevilla in a fixture that pits excellent pre-season momentum against the edge of competitive sharpness. The hosts sit 9th on 0 points having yet to play a league fixture, while Sevilla occupy 3rd on 3 points after winning their opener 2-1 at home to Rayo Vallecano. That 6-place and 3-point gap reflects the calendar quirk rather than any meaningful hierarchy, but it does mean one side arrives with competitive rhythm and the other with five friendlies behind them.

Real Madrid's pre-season sequence makes compelling reading. They have won 4 and drawn 1 of their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 4 across those matches. The run includes a 3-0 victory away to FC Schalke 04, a 1-0 win at Deportivo La Coruna, a 2-1 success at Ferencvarosi TC, a 2-2 draw at home to Fiorentina and a 4-1 home win over Leganes. They have scored in all 5 and kept 2 clean sheets, translating to a Formatic weighted form score of 8.7 out of 10, rated excellent. Their season profile across that 5-match sample shows 13.4 shots per game, 4.4 on target, 61.6 percent possession and 1.44 expected goals. They have managed a clean sheet in 50 percent of their fixtures and failed to score in just 10 percent. The numbers suggest control and a consistent goal threat, though the friendly label on every result tempers the weight of the evidence.

Sevilla arrive with a steadier 5.3 out of 10 form rating, built on 4 wins and 1 defeat from their last 5. That loss came 1-2 away to Bayer Leverkusen in a friendly, while their wins include the 2-1 league opener against Rayo Vallecano plus friendly victories over Utrecht (1-0), NEC Nijmegen (2-1) and AD Ceuta (2-1). They have scored 8 and conceded 5 across the 5, finding the net in all 5 but keeping just 1 clean sheet. Their 3-match season profile shows 12 shots per game, 4 on target, 45 percent possession and 1.27 expected goals. They have registered a clean sheet in 30 percent of games and failed to score in 40 percent, a figure inflated by the small competitive sample. The form gap of 3.4 in Real Madrid's favour reflects the hosts' unbeaten run and superior volume of chances, though Sevilla's sole competitive outing carries more interpretive weight.

The head to head record is unambiguous. Real Madrid have won 9 of the last 10 meetings, Sevilla have won none, and there has been 1 draw. The 5 most recent fixtures all went to Real Madrid: 1-0 in May 2026, 2-0 in December 2025, 2-0 in May 2025, 4-2 in December 2024 and 1-0 in February 2024. Across the full 10, the meetings have averaged 2.9 goals, both teams have scored in 6, and 5 have crossed 2.5 goals. That pattern of low-scoring home wins aligns with Real Madrid's defensive solidity through pre-season, and it suggests Sevilla will need to improve on the 1.27 expected goals they have generated per match so far. The hosts' 1.44 expected goals per game and their record of scoring in every pre-season outing point toward another home win, albeit one that may not reach the 4-2 scoreline of December 2024. Sevilla's competitive edge from their league opener will test whether friendly form translates, but the historical dominance, the possession advantage and the superior chance creation all tilt this fixture toward Real Madrid when the season proper begins for them.