Back to all matches
    Primeira Liga · kickoff 20:15
    Upcoming
    Rio Ave FC
    Rio Ave FC
    vs
    Sporting Lisbon
    Sporting Lisbon
    how we see it finishing
    15%
    Rio Ave FC
    19%
    Draw
    66%
    Sporting Lisbon

    The market rates Sporting Lisbon at 72%, so we are 6 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 3.1 goalsWe make it 1 - 2
    most likely scores0-211%1-210%ours0-110%1-19%0-38%

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    18.45
    X5.50
    21.30

    How this scoreline is calculated

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultTop Pick
    Sporting Lisbon Win@ 1.30
    Safer: Sporting Lisbon or draw at 1.05
    7/10
    Our three-way read is Rio Ave FC 15%, the draw 19%, Sporting Lisbon 66%, so Sporting Lisbon are the likeliest single outcome.
    Goals
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.48
    5/10
    We make the total 3.0 goals, so Over 2.5 Goals lands 59%. The next line up, Over 3.5, is 36%.
    Double chanceBanker
    Rio Ave FC or Sporting Lisbon@ 1.14
    9/10
    The draw is the only result that beats this, and we make it 19%. Rio Ave FC and Sporting Lisbon cover the other 81% between them.

    Top Pick is the selection our model backs most strongly on this match, not the longest price. It is often a short one. Banker is the shortest priced call we rate highly, and Value the longest. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram