Our model scores this match once both teams have enough recent form to work from, predictions publish in the days before kickoff. Form, head-to-head and season stats are available in the tabs above now.
How this scoreline is calculated
San Diego FC
Form comparisonHouston Dynamo
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: San Diego FC mixed, Houston Dynamo mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 23 Apr 2026Houston Dynamo1-0San Diego
- 05 Oct 2025Houston Dynamo2-4San Diego
- 06 Jul 2025San Diego3-4Houston Dynamo
- 10 Oct 2026vsNew York Red Bulls4-1L
- 27 Sept 2026vsAustin3-3D
- 20 Sept 2026vsInter Miami2-2D
- 14 Sept 2026vsPhiladelphia Union0-5L
- 10 Sept 2026vsSan Jose Earthquakes2-3L
- 11 Oct 2026vsMinnesota United FC2-2D
- 27 Sept 2026vsSporting Kansas City0-2L
- 20 Sept 2026vsFC Cincinnati2-2D
- 13 Sept 2026vsSan Jose Earthquakes1-0L
- 10 Sept 2026vsReal Salt Lake2-1W
San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo: form and season numbers
San Diego FC take a form score of 3.3 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 4.2 for Houston Dynamo. San Diego FC have 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5, while Houston Dynamo have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season San Diego FC average 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game, Houston Dynamo 0.9 and 1.0. San Diego FC have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Houston Dynamo in 40%. In their last 3 meetings San Diego FC have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2. San Diego FC sit 12th on 32 points, Houston Dynamo 5th on 45.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo prediction: leaky hosts meet tighter visitors
San Diego FC arrive in 12th on 32 points with a goal difference of minus 3, and their last 10 league matches explain exactly why. Three wins and five losses have come with 16 scored and 22 conceded, a defence that has kept only 2 clean sheets in that span. The alarm bells are recent and loud: a 1-4 defeat away to New York Red Bulls on 10 October, a 0-5 home collapse against Philadelphia Union, and a 2-3 home loss to San Jose Earthquakes all sit inside the last six weeks. San Diego FC are still scoring, 8 of 10 games have brought a goal, but conceding at that rate against a side with a tighter defensive record is a real problem.
Houston Dynamo sit 5th on 45 points, 7 places and 13 points above San Diego FC, and their shape is built on control rather than goals. Across their last 10 they are 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, scoring just 9 and conceding 10, but 4 of those 10 matches ended goalless at the back, a clean sheet rate San Diego FC cannot match. The run includes a 0-0 at home to San Jose Earthquakes, a 0-0 away to Charlotte, and narrow 1-0 wins over Vancouver Whitecaps and Los Angeles Galaxy. Houston Dynamo have also failed to score in 4 of those 10 games, so this is a team that wins and draws by stopping the other side rather than overwhelming it, and their most recent outing, a 2-2 draw away to Minnesota United, fits that pattern of being hard to beat without being prolific.
The season profile numbers back up the contrast: San Diego FC are generating more shots on target per game (4.5 to 3.9) and more possession (56.1 percent to 51.9), with an expected goals figure of 1.67 against Houston Dynamo's 1.09, yet it is Houston Dynamo who keep clean sheets in 40 percent of matches against San Diego FC's 20 percent. The head to head supports the idea that this fixture produces goals regardless of current form: the last 3 meetings have averaged 4.67 goals per game, both teams have scored in 2 of 3, and 2 of those 3 went over 2.5 goals, including a 2-4 away win for San Diego FC in October 2025 and a 3-4 away win for Houston Dynamo in July 2025. Only the most recent meeting, a 1-0 win for Houston Dynamo in April 2026, broke that pattern.
Putting the table gap alongside the goals data points to a game where Houston Dynamo's superior defensive discipline should matter more than San Diego FC's higher shot volume, but the head to head history and San Diego FC's tendency to score even in defeats suggest this is unlikely to stay goalless. Houston Dynamo look the more complete side on current league position and form, while San Diego FC's leaking defence, 22 conceded in their last 10, gives the visitors a route to goals at the other end even if they are not banking on a flood of their own. Expect goals from both sides again, with Houston Dynamo better placed to get the win.
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