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    Brasileirao · kickoff 00:00
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    Sao Paulo
    Sao Paulo
    11th in the table
    WLLDW
    We make it
    1-1
    2.5 goals expected
    Santos
    Santos
    8th in the table
    WWWLW

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultTop Pick
    Sao Paulo or Draw@ 1.25
    8/10
    Sao Paulo winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 73% between them. Only Santos winning beats it, at 27%.
    Goals
    Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.31
    7/10
    We make the total 2.5 goals, so Over 1.5 Goals lands 71%. The next line up, Over 2.5, is 45%.
    Both teams to scoreValue
    Yes@ 1.83
    4/10
    We give Sao Paulo 76% to score and Santos 65%, so both finding the net comes out at 49%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    47%
    Sao Paulo
    26%
    Draw
    27%
    Santos

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.5 goalsWe make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    12.00
    X3.40
    23.62

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Sao Paulo

    Form comparison

    Santos

    5.4
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    5.5
    Form score: Sao Paulo 5.4, Santos 5.5
    1.10
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    1.30
    Goals scored: Sao Paulo 1.10, Santos 1.30
    0.90
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.20
    Goals conceded: Sao Paulo 0.90, Santos 1.20
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Sao Paulo mixed, Santos mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Sao Paulo
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Santos1/5
    2/5Sao Paulo
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Santos0/5
    1.1Sao Paulo
    Goals For per game
    Santos1.3
    0.9Sao Paulo
    Goals Against per game
    Santos1.2
    1.6Sao Paulo
    Yellow Cards per game
    Santos2.7
    0.2Sao Paulo
    Red Cards per game
    Santos0.0
    1Sao Paulo
    Win Streakmatches
    Santos1
    Season averages • Sao Paulo: 10 matches • Santos: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Sao Paulo
    Sao Paulo
    Solid5.4/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WLLDW
    Over 2.5 goals
    0/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Santos
    Santos
    Solid5.5/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWWLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    4W - 2D - 4L from Sao Paulo's perspective
    • 04 Feb 2026Santos1-1Sao Paulo
    • 31 Jan 2026Sao Paulo2-0Santos
    • 21 Sept 2025Santos1-0Sao Paulo
    • 20 Apr 2025Sao Paulo2-1Santos
    • 01 Feb 2025Santos3-1Sao Paulo
    Sao Paulo
    Sao Paulo
    Last 5 matches
    • 20 Sept 2026vsInternacional1-0W
    • 16 Sept 2026vsBoca Juniors1-1D
    • 12 Sept 2026vsPalmeiras2-0L
    • 09 Sept 2026vsBoca Juniors1-0L
    • 05 Sept 2026vsAtletico-MG2-0W
    Santos
    Santos
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Sept 2026vsRemo1-2W
    • 16 Sept 2026vsAtletico-MG4-2L
    • 13 Sept 2026vsCruzeiro2-1W
    • 09 Sept 2026vsAtletico-MG2-0W
    • 06 Sept 2026vsInternacional2-3W
    PosTeamPts
    6Cruzeiro45
    7Atletico Mineiro40
    8Santos38
    9Coritiba38
    10Bragantino-SP36
    11Sao Paulo36
    12Botafogo35
    13Vitoria33
    Updated daily

    Sao Paulo vs Santos: form and season numbers

    Sao Paulo take a form score of 5.4 out of 10 into this Brasileirao fixture, against 5.5 for Santos. Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Santos have 4 wins and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season Sao Paulo average 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, Santos 1.3 and 1.2. Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Santos in 40%. In their last 10 meetings Sao Paulo have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4. Sao Paulo sit 11th on 36 points, Santos 8th on 38.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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