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    Brasileirao · kickoff 01:00
    FT 2-1
    Sao Paulo
    Sao Paulo
    9th in the table
    DWLLW
    final
    2 - 1
    Vitoria
    Vitoria
    12th in the table
    WDLWL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Sao Paulo or Draw@ 1.15
    8/10
    Sao Paulo winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 76% between them. Only Vitoria winning beats it, at 24%.
    GoalsWin
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.30
    9/10
    Under 3.5 Goals lands 78%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 58%.
    Second goals lineLoss
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.81
    5/10
    We make the total 2.4 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 58%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 31%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    49%
    Sao Paulo
    27%
    Draw
    24%
    Vitoria

    The market rates Sao Paulo at 58%, so we are 9 points lower than the price implies.

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.4 goalsWe make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.62
    X3.79
    25.50

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Sao Paulo

    Form comparison

    Vitoria

    4.3
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    3.1
    Form score: Sao Paulo 4.3, Vitoria 3.1
    0.90
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    1.10
    Goals scored: Sao Paulo 0.90, Vitoria 1.10
    1.10
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.40
    Goals conceded: Sao Paulo 1.10, Vitoria 1.40
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Sao Paulo mixed, Vitoria mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5Sao Paulo
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Vitoria2/5
    1/5Sao Paulo
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Vitoria0/5
    0.9Sao Paulo
    Goals For per game
    Vitoria1.1
    1.1Sao Paulo
    Goals Against per game
    Vitoria1.4
    1.5Sao Paulo
    Yellow Cards per game
    Vitoria2.1
    0.1Sao Paulo
    Red Cards per game
    Vitoria0.0
    1Sao Paulo
    Win Streakmatches
    Vitoria0
    Season averages • Sao Paulo: 10 matches • Vitoria: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Sao Paulo
    Sao Paulo
    Mixed4.3/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWLLW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Vitoria
    Vitoria
    Mixed3.1/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    8W - 0D - 2L from Sao Paulo's perspective
    • 11 Oct 2026Sao Paulo2-1Vitoria
    • 11 Apr 2026Vitoria2-0Sao Paulo
    • 07 Dec 2025Vitoria1-0Sao Paulo
    • 09 Aug 2025Sao Paulo2-0Vitoria
    • 25 Aug 2024Sao Paulo2-1Vitoria
    Sao Paulo
    Sao Paulo
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Oct 2026vsVitoria2-1W
    • 08 Oct 2026vsCruzeiro2-0L
    • 02 Oct 2026vsSantos1-2L
    • 20 Sept 2026vsInternacional1-0W
    • 16 Sept 2026vsBoca Juniors1-1D
    Vitoria
    Vitoria
    Last 5 matches
    • 11 Oct 2026vsSao Paulo2-1L
    • 07 Oct 2026vsChapecoense-sc4-0W
    • 20 Sept 2026vsCruzeiro1-3L
    • 13 Sept 2026vsMirassol2-2D
    • 07 Sept 2026vsGremio1-0W
    PosTeamPts
    7Atletico Mineiro44
    8Santos42
    9Sao Paulo39
    10Coritiba38
    11Bragantino-SP37
    12Vitoria36
    13Botafogo35
    14Vasco da Gama35
    Updated daily

    Sao Paulo vs Vitoria: form and season numbers

    Sao Paulo take a form score of 4.3 out of 10 into this Brasileirao fixture, against 3.1 for Vitoria. Sao Paulo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Vitoria have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Sao Paulo average 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, Vitoria 1.1 and 1.4. Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Vitoria in 30%. In their last 10 meetings Sao Paulo have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2. Sao Paulo sit 9th on 39 points, Vitoria 12th on 36.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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