Back to all matches
    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 5-0
    Senegal
    Senegal
    3rd in the table
    DLLWL
    final
    5 - 0
    Iraq
    Iraq
    4th in the table
    DLLLL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.22
    Safer: Senegal or draw at 1.03
    6/10
    Senegal are clear favourites at 1.24 odds despite poor form (1.33/10), suggesting squad quality advantage. Iraq's dire 1.11/10 form and 0.9 GPG away makes them unlikely to trouble Senegal on World Cup stage.
    GoalsLoss
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.60
    7/10
    Both teams showing woeful form below 2/10, suggesting low-quality contest. Senegal's 1.5 GPG and Iraq's 0.9 GPG point to 2-goal margin without fireworks.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    No@ 1.71
    7/10
    Iraq's 0.9 GPG away and abysmal 1.11/10 form suggests scoring struggle. World Cup pressure on underdogs typically suppresses output against superior opposition.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how the market sees it finishing
    77%
    Senegal
    15%
    Draw
    8%
    Iraq

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 2 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    11.22
    X6.50
    212.00

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Senegal

    Form comparison

    Iraq

    2.9
    Form scoreout of 10
    0.2
    Form score: Senegal 2.9, Iraq 0.2
    1.80
    Goals scoredper game
    0.70
    Goals scored: Senegal 1.80, Iraq 0.70
    1.60
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.90
    Goals conceded: Senegal 1.60, Iraq 1.90

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5Senegal
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Iraq0/5
    1/5Senegal
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Iraq3/5
    1.8Senegal
    Goals For per game
    Iraq0.7
    1.6Senegal
    Goals Against per game
    Iraq1.9
    0Senegal
    Win Streakmatches
    Iraq0
    Season averages • Senegal: 10 matches • Iraq: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Senegal
    Senegal
    Poor2.9/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DLLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    4/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    4/5
    Iraq
    Iraq
    Poor0.2/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DLLLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    2/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 0D - 0L from Senegal's perspective
    • 26 Jun 2026Senegal5-0Iraq
    Senegal
    Senegal
    Last 5 matches
    • 01 Jul 2026vsBelgium3-2L
    • 26 Jun 2026vsIraq5-0W
    • 23 Jun 2026vsNorway3-2L
    • 16 Jun 2026vsFrance3-1L
    • 09 Jun 2026vsSaudi Arabia0-0D
    Iraq
    Iraq
    Last 5 matches
    • 26 Jun 2026vsSenegal5-0L
    • 22 Jun 2026vsFrance3-0L
    • 16 Jun 2026vsNorway1-4L
    • 10 Jun 2026vsVenezuela0-2L
    • 04 Jun 2026vsSpain1-1D
    PosTeamPts
    1France9
    2Norway6
    3Senegal3
    4Iraq0
    Updated daily

    Senegal vs Iraq: form and season numbers

    Senegal take a form score of 2.9 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 0.2 for Iraq. Senegal have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5, while Iraq have 1 draw and 4 defeats in theirs. Across the season Senegal average 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game, Iraq 0.7 and 1.9. Senegal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Iraq in 20%. In their last 1 meeting Senegal have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 0. Senegal sit 3rd on 3 points, Iraq 4th on 0.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram