The model's forecast cards
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the model's top pick: the card that stands out most against what its market usually shows in the model's own numbers. It is not a judgement on the price. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Sparta Praha at 72%, so we are 20 points lower than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Sparta Praha
Form comparisonLillestrom
The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 11 Oct 2026vsPardubice2-0W
- 02 Oct 2026vsVysočina Jihlava5-3W
- 20 Sept 2026vsSigma Olomouc0-3W
- 16 Sept 2026vsArarat-Armenia1-4W
- 12 Sept 2026vsFK Jablonec2-0W
- 11 Oct 2026vsMolde2-2D
- 01 Oct 2026vsBærum1-5W
- 20 Sept 2026vsViking3-0L
- 17 Sept 2026vsTorreense1-2L
- 12 Sept 2026vsValerenga2-0W
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom: form and season numbers
Sparta Praha take a form score of 8.9 out of 10 into this Europa League fixture, against 6.0 for Lillestrom. Sparta Praha have 5 wins in their last 5, while Lillestrom have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Sparta Praha average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, Lillestrom 1.8 and 1.4. Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, Lillestrom in 30%. Sparta Praha sit 3rd on 3 points, Lillestrom 24th on 0.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction: a clear gap in form
Sparta Praha arrive in this Europa League fixture sitting 3rd in the table after a single round, having opened with a 4-1 scoreline that leaves them with a goal difference of +3. Lillestrom, by contrast, sit 24th having lost their opener 2-1, and the 21-place gap between the two clubs in the table is already a wide one before kickoff. Formatic's form bands only sharpen that picture: Sparta Praha carry an excellent form rating against a steady one for Lillestrom, with the page describing it plainly as a clear gap in Sparta Praha's favour.
Sparta Praha's last 10 matches across all competitions produced 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 28 scored and 13 conceded, and they found the net in 8 of those 10 games while keeping 4 clean sheets. The two defeats of note came away at Hradec Králové (1-2) and at home to Slavia Praha (0-3), plus a 0-3 loss away to Lyon in the Champions League, but either side of those results sit wins such as 4-1 away to Ararat-Armenia in this very competition and a 3-0 league win away to Sigma Olomouc. A 5-3 friendly win over Vysočina Jihlava carries little weight given its status, but the competitive run underneath it, averaging 1.84 expected goals and 17.5 shots per game with 62.1 percent possession in their season sample, points to a side creating chances at a high rate.
Lillestrom's underlying numbers tell a more mixed story. Their last 10 yielded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 17 scored and 13 conceded, scoring in 8 of 10 but managing only 3 clean sheets. Results have swung sharply: a 2-0 win at home to Valerenga and a 2-1 win away to Brann sit alongside a 0-3 loss away to Viking and a 1-4 home defeat to Fredrikstad, while their most recent Europa League outing ended in a 1-2 home loss to Torreense. Their season profile shows just 3.9 shots on target per game against Sparta Praha's 6.8, and with 53.4 percent possession against 62.1 percent, Lillestrom look like a side that can trouble teams in bursts but struggles to sustain control for a full 90 minutes.
No head to head meetings are on record between these two clubs, so this preview is built purely on current form and league standing, and both point the same way. Sparta Praha have failed to score in only 20 percent of their last 8 games, the same rate as Lillestrom, but Sparta Praha's scoring returns are far heavier and their defensive record over the last 10 includes 4 clean sheets to Lillestrom's 3. The market treats Sparta Praha as a clear favourite here, and little in the data argues against that shape: expect Sparta Praha to dominate territory and shots, with Lillestrom needing one of their sharper recent attacking returns, like the 2-1 win at Brann, to keep the scoreline competitive.
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