Our model scores this match once both teams have enough recent form to work from, predictions publish in the days before kickoff. Form, head-to-head and season stats are available in the tabs above now.
How this scoreline is calculated
St Louis City
Form comparisonVancouver Whitecaps FC
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: St Louis City mixed, Vancouver Whitecaps FC weakThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 06 Sept 2026Vancouver Whitecaps1-3St. Louis City
- 24 Aug 2025Vancouver Whitecaps3-2St. Louis City
- 20 Apr 2025St. Louis City0-0Vancouver Whitecaps
- 14 Jul 2024St. Louis City1-4Vancouver Whitecaps
- 30 Jun 2024Vancouver Whitecaps4-3St. Louis City
- 30 Sept 2026vsNew York Red Bulls0-3W
- 20 Sept 2026vsToronto FC3-1W
- 17 Sept 2026vsColorado Rapids0-3W
- 13 Sept 2026vsMinnesota United FC4-2W
- 10 Sept 2026vsPortland Timbers2-2D
- 11 Oct 2026vsLos Angeles FC1-1D
- 07 Oct 2026vsChicago Fire3-1L
- 27 Sept 2026vsDC United3-3D
- 20 Sept 2026vsReal Salt Lake0-3W
- 16 Sept 2026vsCF Montreal2-1L
St Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC: form and season numbers
St Louis City take a form score of 9.1 out of 10 into this MLS fixture, against 4.1 for Vancouver Whitecaps FC. St Louis City have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5, while Vancouver Whitecaps FC have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season St Louis City average 2.7 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1.8 and 1.5. St Louis City have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Vancouver Whitecaps FC in 30%. In their last 8 meetings St Louis City have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 4. St Louis City sit 2nd on 47 points, Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1st on 51.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
St Louis City vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC prediction: form points one way
Vancouver Whitecaps FC top the table on 51 points, 4 clear of St Louis City in 2nd, but the two sides are travelling in opposite directions right now. St Louis City arrive in excellent form while Vancouver Whitecaps FC are rated patchy, and Formatic's form gap sits wide in favour of the visitors here, a reminder that the league standings and the last month of results are telling different stories.
St Louis City have won 7 of their last 10 without losing once, scoring in all 10 and conceding just 12 across that run. The goals have come from everywhere: a 3-0 win away to New York Red Bulls, a 4-2 home win over Minnesota United FC, a 3-1 away win at San Jose Earthquakes. Even the draws in that sample were shootouts, a 3-3 with FC Dallas and a 2-2 at Portland Timbers, so the clean sheets are rare (2 of 10) but the scoring never stops. That 1.78 goals per game at home or away, backed by 48 scored this season against 36 conceded, lines up with a side that wins games by outscoring teams rather than shutting them out.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC still have the division's best goal difference at +31 and scored 61 times in 28 matches, more than anyone, but the last 10 have been shakier: 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with defeats to Chicago Fire (1-3), Austin (1-2) and a 1-2 loss to CF Montreal in the Canadian Championship mixed in among wins like the 3-0 at Real Salt Lake. They have scored in every one of those 10 matches too, with 18 goals and 15 conceded, but the clean sheet count (3 of 10) and seven games shipping at least one goal matches a team that is creating but also leaking, a pattern their 16.2 shots per game and 55.1 percent possession this season do not fully protect against.
The head to head has generally favoured Vancouver Whitecaps FC, who have won 4 of the last 8 meetings to St Louis City's 2, with 2 draws, and the sides have put together some big scorelines: Vancouver winning 4-3 and 3-2, St Louis City hitting back 1-4 the other way, and a goalless 0-0 breaking up the pattern in April 2025. The most recent meeting, on 6 September 2026, saw St Louis City win 1-3 away from home, part of the same hot streak they are currently riding. With 3.5 goals per meeting across these 8 games and over 2.5 goals landing in 6 of 8, this fixture rarely stays quiet, and both teams have scored in 5 of the last 8. Given St Louis City's unbeaten run and superior defensive numbers against a Vancouver Whitecaps FC side that keeps conceding even while scoring freely, this looks set up as an open, high-tempo game where St Louis City's recent edge in both ends of the pitch should matter more than the table position.
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