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    Scottish Premiership · kickoff 15:00
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    St Mirren
    St Mirren
    3rd in the table
    LWWL
    vs
    Motherwell
    Motherwell
    4th in the table
    DDWLL
    how we see it finishing
    36%
    St Mirren
    27%
    Draw
    37%
    Motherwell

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.5 goalsWe make it 1 - 2
    most likely scores1-113%0-110%1-010%1-28%ours0-08%

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are below.

    12.51
    X3.22
    22.75

    How this scoreline is calculated

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultTop Pick
    Motherwell or Draw@ 1.48
    6/10
    Motherwell winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 64% between them. Only St Mirren winning beats it, at 36%.
    GoalsBanker
    Over 1.5 Goals@ 1.29
    8/10
    We make the total 2.5 goals, so Over 1.5 Goals lands 71%. The next line up, Over 2.5, is 46%.
    Both teams to score
    Yes@ 1.72
    4/10
    We give St Mirren 71% to score and Motherwell 72%, so both finding the net comes out at 51%.

    Top Pick is the selection our model backs most strongly on this match, not the longest price. It is often a short one. Banker is the shortest priced call we rate highly, and Value the longest. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    St Mirren

    Form comparison

    Motherwell

    7.0
    Form scoreout of 10
    4.9
    Form score: St Mirren 7.0, Motherwell 4.9
    2.33
    Goals scoredper game, form window
    1.40
    Goals scored: St Mirren 2.33, Motherwell 1.40
    1.22
    Goals concededper game, form window, lower is better
    1.40
    Goals conceded: St Mirren 1.22, Motherwell 1.40
    weak
    Opposition facedform window
    weak

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: St Mirren weak, Motherwell weak

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5St Mirren
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Motherwell2/5
    1/5St Mirren
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Motherwell2/5
    2.3St Mirren
    Goals For per game
    Motherwell1.4
    1.2St Mirren
    Goals Against per game
    Motherwell1.4
    2.5St Mirren
    Yellow Cards per game
    Motherwell2.2
    0St Mirren
    Win Streakmatches
    Motherwell0
    Season averages • St Mirren: 9 matches • Motherwell: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    St Mirren
    St Mirren
    Solid7.0/10
    LWWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/4
    BTTS
    1/4
    Clean sheet
    2/4
    Scored in
    3/4
    Motherwell
    Motherwell
    Mixed4.9/10
    DDWLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    2W - 4D - 4L from St Mirren's perspective
    • 21 Feb 2026ST Mirren0-5Motherwell
    • 03 Jan 2026Motherwell2-0ST Mirren
    • 01 Nov 2025Motherwell1-4ST Mirren
    • 09 Aug 2025ST Mirren0-0Motherwell
    • 15 Mar 2025Motherwell2-2ST Mirren
    St Mirren
    St Mirren
    Last 5 matches
    • 16 Aug 2026vsRangers5-1L
    • 08 Aug 2026vsST Johnstone1-0W
    • 01 Aug 2026vsFalkirk0-2W
    • 26 Jul 2026vsDunfermline0-1L
    Motherwell
    Motherwell
    Last 5 matches
    • 20 Aug 2026vsSC Freiburg1-3L
    • 16 Aug 2026vsStenhousemuir1-0L
    • 13 Aug 2026vsHJK Helsinki2-0W
    • 09 Aug 2026vsFalkirk0-0D
    • 06 Aug 2026vsHJK Helsinki1-1D
    PosTeamPts
    1Celtic6
    2Dundee6
    3St Mirren6
    4Motherwell4
    5Hearts3
    6St Johnstone3
    Updated daily

    St Mirren vs Motherwell: form and season numbers

    St Mirren take a form score of 7.0 out of 10 into this Scottish Premiership fixture, against 4.9 for Motherwell. St Mirren have 2 wins and 2 defeats in their last 4, while Motherwell have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season St Mirren average 2.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game, Motherwell 1.4 and 1.4. St Mirren have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their matches this season, Motherwell in 40%. In their last 10 meetings St Mirren have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4. St Mirren sit 3rd on 6 points, Motherwell 4th on 4.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

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