Tenerife arrive at this one with a draw habit that borders on compulsive. Six of their last nine have finished level, and the table reflects that tendency toward stalemate: 15 points from 12 games, built on W3 D6 L3, sit them 14th, eight places and 10 points clear of the visitors. They have conceded 17 and scored 15 in those 12 league matches, a goal difference of minus 2 that tells of a side involved in tight, scrappy contests rather than one running away with anything. The recent sequence backs that up: back to back 1-1 draws against Sabadell and Celta de Vigo II, another 1-1 with Girona, and a 2-2 at home to FC Andorra most recently. They scored in 8 of their last 9 matches, so the goals tend to come, they simply keep coming at both ends.

Ceuta's numbers are considerably bleaker. Bottom of the table on 5 points from 13 games, their record of W1 D2 L10 and a goal difference of minus 20 make them the division's outlier defensively, shipping 30 goals in those 13 league matches at a rate of 2.31 conceded per game. The last 9 have brought just two wins, against Poblense in the Copa del Rey and Real Sociedad II in the league, with five defeats including a 0-3 at Cordoba and a 0-2 at home to Sporting Gijon in their two most recent outings. They have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of those 9 matches, and the derived totals show 16 conceded across that span against only 10 scored. Oddly, their season profile shows more attacking volume than Tenerife's, averaging 18.1 shots and 5.1 shots on target per game against Tenerife's 9.3 shots and 2.8 on target, with far greater possession at 52.9 percent to 40.2 percent. The shots simply are not translating into results, and an expected goals figure of 1.9 per game has not been enough to paper over a defence shipping goals at the rate Ceuta's has.

Tenerife's own defensive record is nothing to celebrate, a single clean sheet in their last 9 matches and 15 conceded across those 12 league games, but it is Ceuta's capacity to concede that defines this fixture. Tenerife failed to score in only 11 percent of games this season, while Ceuta have kept a clean sheet in 0 percent of their sampled matches, a damning number for a side travelling to face a team that has found the net in all but one of its last nine outings. Tenerife's patchy form still represents a slight gap in quality over a Ceuta side marked poor, and the form gap lines up with the points gap between 14th and 22nd.

Given Tenerife's tendency to draw rather than win, and Ceuta's near total inability to keep anyone out, the most likely shape of this one is goals at both ends with Tenerife doing enough to avoid defeat. A repeat of the 1-1 pattern that has followed Tenerife through autumn feels live, but if either side breaks the mould it should be the hosts finding a way to win rather than Ceuta ending their long run without victory on the road.