Back to all matches
    World Cup · kickoff 03:00
    FT 3-2
    Türkiye
    Türkiye
    4th in the table
    WDWLD
    final
    3 - 2
    USA
    USA
    1st in the table
    WWLWL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultLoss
    DNB USA@ 1.60
    7/10
    USA's superior form (7.33 vs 4.22) and higher GPG (2.2 vs 1.6) give them a clear edge. DNB Away at 1.60 offers better value than straight Away Win while protecting against a draw in a potentially nervy World Cup opener.
    GoalsWin
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.62
    6/10
    Combined 3.8 GPG average suggests goals, with USA averaging 2.2 GPG and both teams likely pushing forward in a must-win group stage match. Predicted 3 total goals aligns with Over 2.5.
    Both teams to scoreWin
    Yes@ 1.60
    7/10
    Türkiye averaging 1.6 GPG at home should find the net despite poor form. USA's attacking profile (2.2 GPG) means they're likely to concede at least once in an open World Cup group match.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how the market sees it finishing
    25%
    Türkiye
    24%
    Draw
    51%
    USA

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    13.75
    X4.00
    21.85

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Türkiye

    Form comparison

    USA

    4.2
    Form scoreout of 10
    4.7
    Form score: Türkiye 4.2, USA 4.7
    1.60
    Goals scoredper game
    2.20
    Goals scored: Türkiye 1.60, USA 2.20
    1.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    2.00
    Goals conceded: Türkiye 1.00, USA 2.00

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5Türkiye
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    USA2/5
    0/5Türkiye
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    USA0/5
    1.6Türkiye
    Goals For per game
    USA2.2
    1.0Türkiye
    Goals Against per game
    USA2.0
    0Türkiye
    Win Streakmatches
    USA0
    Season averages • Türkiye: 10 matches • USA: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Türkiye
    Türkiye
    Mixed4.2/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WDWLD
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    USA
    USA
    Mixed4.7/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 0L from Türkiye's perspective
    Türkiye
    Türkiye
    Last 5 matches
    • 31 Mar 2026vsItaly U191-1D
    • 30 Mar 2026vsKosovo U193-1L
    • 28 Mar 2026vsHungary U193-2W
    • 27 Mar 2026vsArmenia U191-1D
    • 25 Mar 2026vsSlovakia U190-1W
    USA
    USA
    Last 5 matches
    • 07 Jul 2026vsBelgium1-4L
    • 02 Jul 2026vsBosnia & Herzegovina2-0W
    • 26 Jun 2026vsTürkiye3-2L
    • 19 Jun 2026vsAustralia2-0W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsParaguay4-1W
    PosTeamPts
    1USA6
    2Australia4
    3Paraguay4
    4Türkiye3
    Updated daily

    Türkiye vs USA: form and season numbers

    Türkiye take a form score of 4.2 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 4.7 for USA. Türkiye have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while USA have 3 wins and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Türkiye average 1.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game, USA 2.2 and 2.0. Türkiye have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, USA in 20%. Türkiye sit 4th on 3 points, USA 1st on 6.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

    Tomorrow's top pick, free, the moment it drops

    Every pick is posted to the free Telegram channel before kickoff and the full record stays public, win or lose.

    Join the free Telegram