The model's forecast cards
Powered by Formatic AITop Pick is the model's top pick: the card that stands out most against what its market usually shows in the model's own numbers. It is not a judgement on the price. Every card is published before kickoff and settled in public.
The market rates Union St. Gilloise at 38%, so we are 8 points higher than the price implies.
Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.
Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.
How this scoreline is calculated
Union St. Gilloise
Form comparisonReal Sociedad
Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.
Opposition faced: Union St. Gilloise weak, Real Sociedad mixedThe form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.
- 11 Oct 2026vsOH Leuven1-1D
- 20 Sept 2026vsAntwerp0-2W
- 17 Sept 2026vsPlzen0-3W
- 12 Sept 2026vsLommel United5-0W
- 05 Sept 2026vsCharleroi2-3W
- 11 Oct 2026vsDeportivo La Coruna3-2W
- 02 Oct 2026vsAthletic Club0-1L
- 20 Sept 2026vsValencia2-3W
- 17 Sept 2026vsBournemouth1-2L
- 13 Sept 2026vsAtletico Madrid0-3L
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: form and season numbers
Union St. Gilloise take a form score of 8.7 out of 10 into this Europa League fixture, against 4.3 for Real Sociedad. Union St. Gilloise have 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5, while Real Sociedad have 2 wins and 3 defeats in theirs. Across the season Union St. Gilloise average 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game, Real Sociedad 1.3 and 1.8. Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their matches this season, Real Sociedad in 10%. Union St. Gilloise sit 5th on 3 points, Real Sociedad 22nd on 0.
Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.
Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad prediction: form gap favours the hosts
Union St. Gilloise arrive at this Europa League meeting with a league record that already reads 3 scored, 0 conceded from their opening match, and a last-10 run across all competitions of W7 D2 L1 with 29 scored and 9 conceded. That is a side scoring in 9 of its last 10 outings and keeping a clean sheet in 6 of them. Real Sociedad sit 22nd in the same table with 0 points from 1, having shipped 2 and scored just 1, and their wider form puts them at W3 D1 L6 from their last 10 with 11 scored and 19 conceded, a clean sheet in only 1 of those matches.
The pattern in Union St. Gilloise's results is not one defeat propping up a soft run. Wins have come 3-0 away to Plzen in the Europa League, 5-0 at home to Lommel United, 3-2 away to Charleroi and 3-0 at Anderlecht, with the only loss a 2-3 reverse away to Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League and a 3-3 draw against the same opponent at home. That is a side that score heavily and concede only against the toughest continental opposition they have faced. The season profile backs it up: 18 shots and 8.1 on target per game, a clean sheet in 60 percent of matches, and they have failed to score in just 10 percent of their sample.
Real Sociedad's numbers tell a different story. Across their last 10 they have lost 6, including a 0-3 home defeat to Atletico Madrid, a 1-4 away loss at Real Madrid and a 1-2 home reverse against Bournemouth in this very competition. There have been wins too, 3-2 away to Valencia and 3-2 away to Elche, so they are not incapable of scoring, but a clean sheet has arrived in only 1 of 10 and they have failed to score in 4 of 10. Their season profile shows 13.8 shots and 5.1 on target per game, both below Union St.
Formatic's form score marks this as a wide gap in Union St. Gilloise's favour, and the league table, where the hosts sit 17 places and 3 points above their visitors, points the same way. Union St. Gilloise have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches and conceded only to the strongest side they have met, while Real Sociedad have kept one clean sheet in ten games and lost six of them. The market treats this as a clear favourite for the hosts, and the numbers support an open, goal-involved game in which Union St. Gilloise look far likelier to score first and keep control than Real Sociedad look likely to shut them out.
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