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    World Cup · kickoff 01:00
    FT 0-1
    Uruguay
    Uruguay
    3rd in the table
    DDDDL
    final
    0 - 1
    Spain
    Spain
    1st in the table
    WWWWW

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Away Win@ 1.60
    Safer: Spain or draw at 1.12
    8/10
    Spain's superior form (6.89 vs 3.11) and attacking output (2.33 GPG vs 1.1) point to an away win. Uruguay's form is in the bottom third at 3.11/10, while Spain are clear favourites at 1.50 odds.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 2.15
    7/10
    Spain averaging 2.33 GPG suggests they'll contribute multiple goals. Combined output of 3.43 GPG between both sides supports over 2.5, matching the predicted 3-goal scoreline.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 2.15
    6/10
    Uruguay at home in a World Cup fixture should find at least one goal despite poor form (1.1 GPG). Spain's attacking intent (2.33 GPG) makes them vulnerable to counter-attacks in tournament settings.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how the market sees it finishing
    16%
    Uruguay
    25%
    Draw
    59%
    Spain

    Win probability from the 1X2 prices we logged, bookmaker margin removed.

    We make it 1 - 2

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    16.00
    X3.77
    21.60

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Uruguay

    Form comparison

    Spain

    2.2
    Form scoreout of 10
    10.0
    Form score: Uruguay 2.2, Spain 10.0
    0.80
    Goals scoredper game
    1.80
    Goals scored: Uruguay 0.80, Spain 1.80
    1.10
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    0.30
    Goals conceded: Uruguay 1.10, Spain 0.30

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    1/5Uruguay
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Spain4/5
    2/5Uruguay
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Spain0/5
    0.8Uruguay
    Goals For per game
    Spain1.8
    1.1Uruguay
    Goals Against per game
    Spain0.3
    0Uruguay
    Win Streakmatches
    Spain7
    Season averages • Uruguay: 10 matches • Spain: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Uruguay
    Uruguay
    Poor2.2/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DDDDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Spain
    Spain
    Excellent10.0/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWWWW
    Over 2.5 goals
    2/5
    BTTS
    1/5
    Clean sheet
    4/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    0W - 0D - 2L from Uruguay's perspective
    • 27 Jun 2026Uruguay0-1Spain
    • 16 Jun 2013Spain2-1Uruguay
    Uruguay
    Uruguay
    Last 5 matches
    • 27 Jun 2026vsSpain0-1L
    • 21 Jun 2026vsCape Verde Islands2-2D
    • 15 Jun 2026vsSaudi Arabia1-1D
    • 31 Mar 2026vsAlgeria0-0D
    • 27 Mar 2026vsEngland1-1D
    Spain
    Spain
    Last 5 matches
    • 19 Jul 2026vsArgentina1-0W
    • 14 Jul 2026vsFrance0-2W
    • 10 Jul 2026vsBelgium2-1W
    • 06 Jul 2026vsPortugal0-1W
    • 02 Jul 2026vsAustria3-0W
    PosTeamPts
    1Spain7
    2Cape Verde Islands3
    3Uruguay2
    4Saudi Arabia2
    Updated daily

    Uruguay vs Spain: form and season numbers

    Uruguay take a form score of 2.2 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 10.0 for Spain. Uruguay have 4 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5, while Spain have 5 wins in theirs. Across the season Uruguay average 0.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, Spain 1.8 and 0.3. Uruguay have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, Spain in 70%. In their last 2 meetings Uruguay have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 2. Uruguay sit 3rd on 2 points, Spain 1st on 7.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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