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    World Cup · kickoff 20:00
    FT 2-0
    USA
    USA
    1st in the table
    WWLWL
    final
    2 - 0
    Australia
    Australia
    2nd in the table
    DWLDD

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Home Win@ 1.60
    6/10
    USA's 2.2 GPG at home and World Cup momentum edge Australia's 6.22/10 form. Home advantage in a World Cup tournament historically decisive, though USA's 5.33/10 form indicates recent inconsistency.
    GoalsLoss
    Over 2.5 Goals@ 1.91
    7/10
    Combined 3.6 GPG (USA 2.2 home, Australia 1.4 away) suggests 3+ goals. World Cup knockout urgency typically produces open play and attacking intent from both sides.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    Yes@ 2.00
    7/10
    Australia's 1.4 GPG away shows consistent scoring threat. USA's 5.33/10 form indicates defensive vulnerability despite home advantage, World Cup pressure often leads to cagey but open matches.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    We make it 2 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    How this scoreline is calculated

    USA

    Form comparison

    Australia

    4.7
    Form scoreout of 10
    3.6
    Form score: USA 4.7, Australia 3.6
    2.20
    Goals scoredper game
    1.00
    Goals scored: USA 2.20, Australia 1.00
    2.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.00
    Goals conceded: USA 2.00, Australia 1.00

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5USA
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Australia2/5
    0/5USA
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Australia2/5
    2.2USA
    Goals For per game
    Australia1.0
    2.0USA
    Goals Against per game
    Australia1.0
    0USA
    Win Streakmatches
    Australia0
    Season averages • USA: 10 matches • Australia: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    USA
    USA
    Mixed4.7/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Australia
    Australia
    Mixed3.6/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    DWLDD
    Over 2.5 goals
    0/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    2W - 0D - 0L from USA's perspective
    • 19 Jun 2026USA2-0Australia
    • 15 Oct 2025USA2-1Australia
    USA
    USA
    Last 5 matches
    • 07 Jul 2026vsBelgium1-4L
    • 02 Jul 2026vsBosnia & Herzegovina2-0W
    • 26 Jun 2026vsTürkiye3-2L
    • 19 Jun 2026vsAustralia2-0W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsParaguay4-1W
    Australia
    Australia
    Last 5 matches
    • 03 Jul 2026vsEgypt1-1D
    • 26 Jun 2026vsParaguay0-0D
    • 19 Jun 2026vsUSA2-0L
    • 14 Jun 2026vsTürkiye2-0W
    • 06 Jun 2026vsSwitzerland1-1D
    PosTeamPts
    1USA6
    2Australia4
    3Paraguay4
    4Türkiye3
    Updated daily

    USA vs Australia: form and season numbers

    USA take a form score of 4.7 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 3.6 for Australia. USA have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Australia have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in theirs. Across the season USA average 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, Australia 1.0 and 1.0. USA have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Australia in 30%. In their last 2 meetings USA have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 0. USA sit 1st on 6 points, Australia 2nd on 4.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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