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    World Cup · kickoff 02:00
    FT 4-1
    USA
    USA
    1st in the table
    WWLWL
    final
    4 - 1
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    3rd in the table
    LWDDL

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    DC USA/Draw@ 1.25
    7/10
    USA hosting opener with strong home support and qualifying form. Paraguay defensively organized but limited attacking threat on road. DC hedges opener nerves while capturing USA's material advantage.
    GoalsLoss
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 1.60
    6/10
    MD1 historical prior (59% Under) plus Paraguay's defensive setup. USA likely scores 1-2 but Paraguay rarely opens up enough on road to create shootout.
    Both teams to scoreLoss
    No@ 1.75
    6/10
    Paraguay managed just 5 goals in 10 away qualifiers. USA's home defensive record solid. Opener nerves and Paraguay's conservative approach favor clean sheet.
    We make it 2 - 0

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    How this scoreline is calculated

    USA

    Form comparison

    Paraguay

    4.7
    Form scoreout of 10
    2.9
    Form score: USA 4.7, Paraguay 2.9
    2.20
    Goals scoredper game
    1.20
    Goals scored: USA 2.20, Paraguay 1.20
    2.00
    Goals concededper game, lower is better
    1.10
    Goals conceded: USA 2.00, Paraguay 1.10

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    2/5USA
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Paraguay2/5
    0/5USA
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Paraguay2/5
    2.2USA
    Goals For per game
    Paraguay1.2
    2.0USA
    Goals Against per game
    Paraguay1.1
    0USA
    Win Streakmatches
    Paraguay0
    Season averages • USA: 10 matches • Paraguay: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    USA
    USA
    Mixed4.7/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    WWLWL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    3/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    Poor2.9/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LWDDL
    Over 2.5 goals
    1/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    2/5
    Scored in
    3/5
    Last 5 meetings
    4W - 0D - 0L from USA's perspective
    • 13 Jun 2026USA4-1Paraguay
    • 15 Nov 2025USA2-1Paraguay
    • 27 Mar 2018USA1-0Paraguay
    • 11 Jun 2016USA1-0Paraguay
    USA
    USA
    Last 5 matches
    • 07 Jul 2026vsBelgium1-4L
    • 02 Jul 2026vsBosnia & Herzegovina2-0W
    • 26 Jun 2026vsTürkiye3-2L
    • 19 Jun 2026vsAustralia2-0W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsParaguay4-1W
    Paraguay
    Paraguay
    Last 5 matches
    • 04 Jul 2026vsFrance0-1L
    • 29 Jun 2026vsGermany1-1D
    • 26 Jun 2026vsAustralia0-0D
    • 20 Jun 2026vsTürkiye0-1W
    • 13 Jun 2026vsUSA4-1L
    PosTeamPts
    1USA6
    2Australia4
    3Paraguay4
    4Türkiye3
    Updated daily

    USA vs Paraguay: form and season numbers

    USA take a form score of 4.7 out of 10 into this World Cup fixture, against 2.9 for Paraguay. USA have 3 wins and 2 defeats in their last 5, while Paraguay have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season USA average 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, Paraguay 1.2 and 1.1. USA have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their matches this season, Paraguay in 40%. In their last 4 meetings USA have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0. USA sit 1st on 6 points, Paraguay 3rd on 4.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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