Two sides separated by just one place and zero points meet on Sunday, with Villarreal 5th on 1 point and Elche 6th also on 1 point after opening the season with draws. Both clubs sit within sight of Espanyol at the top on 3 points, making this an early opportunity to move into contention. Villarreal carry a form score of 6.3 out of 10 against Elche's 5.0, a gap of 1.3 favouring the home side, though both are rated as steady rather than surging.

Villarreal opened the league campaign with a 2-2 draw away to Racing Santander, continuing a run that has seen them score in all 5 of their recent fixtures while conceding in 4 of those 5. Across their last five matches they have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, scoring 7 and conceding 7. Pre-season brought mixed results, including a 2-1 win away to Galatasaray and a 1-0 home victory over Levante, but also a 1-3 defeat away to Lens. Their season profile across a 3-match sample shows 12.3 shots per game, 5.7 on target, and 1.44 expected goals, alongside 51.3 percent possession and a clean sheet rate of 20 percent. They have failed to score in 20 percent of matches, suggesting a generally open style that produces chances at both ends.

Elche began their league season with a 1-1 draw away to Deportivo La Coruna, and they have now drawn 4 of their last 5 fixtures, including 2-2 results at home to both Cordoba and Al Ain, plus a 0-0 stalemate with Johor Darul Takzim FC. Their only win in that span came 2-1 at home to Kaizer Chiefs. Across the five they have scored 7 and conceded 6, with a clean sheet in 1 of 5 and goals in 4 of 5. Over a 6-match sample they average 10.5 shots per game, 3.5 on target, and 0.96 expected goals, with 58.7 percent possession but 15.5 fouls per match and 2.7 yellow cards. That possession figure is higher than Villarreal's 51.3 percent, yet Elche's shot volume and expected goals are lower, pointing to control without cutting edge.

The head to head record over the last 10 meetings favours Villarreal with 5 wins to Elche's 2, plus 3 draws. An average of 3.0 goals per meeting, both teams scoring in 6 of 10, and over 2.5 goals landing in 7 of 10 all suggest an open contest when these sides meet. The most recent encounter in March ended 2-1 to Villarreal, while the January meeting before that also went to the home side 3-1. Elche's most recent win in this fixture came 3-1 in February 2023, and they also took a 1-0 result in January 2022, but Villarreal dominated 4-0 in September 2022. With both sides averaging 2.00 and 1.00 goals per game respectively this season, and both having conceded in their openers, the historical trend toward goals carries weight. Villarreal's superior form score and home advantage align with their head to head dominance, but Elche's possession and disciplined start suggest they will not concede easily. The numbers point toward a competitive fixture where Villarreal's greater shot volume and expected goals give them the edge, though the narrow table gap and Elche's unbeaten start mean the margin is slender.