Vitoria welcome Grêmio on Sunday with a 2.45-point form advantage according to Formatic's weighted measure, though both sides arrive in underwhelming shape. The hosts rate 4.89 out of 10 for recent form, a patchy return built on 3 wins from their last 5 matches but undermined by a 2-0 defeat at Remo in their most recent outing. Grêmio's 2.44 score reflects a poor run that has delivered just 1 win from 5, including back-to-back competitive losses before salvaging a 1-1 draw at home to Fluminense last time out.

The league table shows Vitoria in 13th place on 26 points from 20 matches, 2 places and 4 points clear of 15th-placed Grêmio who have collected 22 points from the same number of games. Both sides have scored 22 goals this season at exactly 1.10 per game, but Vitoria's defensive record is marginally tighter at 1.35 conceded per match against Grêmio's 1.30. That narrow gap in goals against has kept Vitoria's goal difference at -5 compared to Grêmio's -4, though neither side has found consistency at either end of the pitch over the campaign.

Vitoria's recent results show clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 matches, including a 1-0 home win over Vasco da Gama and a 0-0 draw at Botafogo, alongside 2-1 victories home and away to Fortaleza in the Copa do Nordeste. Grêmio have conceded in all 5 of their most recent outings, shipping 9 goals while scoring 8, and their season profile confirms clean sheets in just 10 percent of games. The visitors have found the net in every one of those 5 matches, maintaining a 100 percent scoring rate in recent fixtures, but the 2-3 loss at Bolívar in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana and the 1-2 reverse at Mirassol highlight their inability to protect leads or tighten up at the back.

The head-to-head record tilts sharply toward Grêmio, who have won 6 of the last 10 meetings with 4 draws and no Vitoria victories. The most recent encounter saw Grêmio win 2-0 in March 2026, while the September 2025 fixture finished 3-1 to the visitors. Vitoria's last two home meetings ended 1-1, suggesting they have found a way to compete on their own patch even when the broader pattern favours the opposition. Across those 10 fixtures, both teams have scored in 4 and over 2.5 goals has landed in 3, pointing to a series that typically produces fewer goals than either side's current 1.10 scoring rate might suggest.

Vitoria's season profile shows 4.7 shots on target per game from 11.7 attempts and an expected goals figure of 0.71, well below their actual 1.10 scoring rate, implying they have been clinical when chances arrive. Grêmio average 4.7 shots on target from 12.4 total shots with 1.44 expected goals per match, closer to their actual output but still underperforming that measure slightly. The 51.2 percent possession for Vitoria and 52.1 percent for Grêmio suggests evenly matched sides in terms of territorial control, though neither has translated that into a strong league position. With 4 points separating them and both sides struggling for form, the value in this fixture lies in the contrast between Vitoria's recent defensive solidity at home and Grêmio's inability to keep a clean sheet, set against a head-to-head ledger that has repeatedly favoured the visitors.