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    Championship · kickoff 15:00
    FT 0-4
    Watford
    Watford
    20th in the table
    LWLLL
    final
    0 - 4
    Burnley
    Burnley
    24th in the table
    LDLDW

    What we would back

    Powered by Formatic AI
    Match resultWin
    Burnley or Draw@ 1.40
    7/10
    Burnley winning or the draw covers two of the three results, 67% between them. Only Watford winning beats it, at 33%.
    GoalsLoss
    Under 3.5 Goals@ 1.37
    9/10
    Under 3.5 Goals lands 77%. The line below, Under 2.5, is 56%.
    Second goals lineLoss
    Under 2.5 Goals@ 2.00
    5/10
    We make the total 2.5 goals, so Under 2.5 Goals lands 56%. The line below, Under 1.5, is 30%.

    Top Pick is the card that stands out most against what its market usually offers, so it is rarely the shortest price here and not always the best rated. Banker is the shortest price under 1.25, and Value the longest over 1.60. Every one is published before kickoff and settled in public.

    how we see it finishing
    33%
    Watford
    27%
    Draw
    40%
    Burnley

    Our own numbers, from the goal rates the model fits for each side.

    We expect around 2.5 goalsWe make it 1 - 1

    Our score is the one that fits the goals we expect, so it is not always the biggest percentage above: the single likeliest score is usually a low scoring draw, and even that lands only about 12% of the time. This is the model's working, not a tip. The bets it leads to are above.

    12.81
    X3.44
    22.41

    How this scoreline is calculated

    Watford

    Form comparison

    Burnley

    1.7
    Form scoreout of 10, last 10 matches
    4.1
    Form score: Watford 1.7, Burnley 4.1
    0.80
    Goals scoredper game, last 10
    1.30
    Goals scored: Watford 0.80, Burnley 1.30
    1.90
    Goals concededper game, last 10, lower is better
    1.70
    Goals conceded: Watford 1.90, Burnley 1.70
    mixed
    Opposition facedlast 10
    mixed

    Where those opponents sat in the table: strong means they averaged roughly the top 40%, weak roughly the bottom 40%, mixed in between.

    Opposition faced: Watford mixed, Burnley mixed

    The form score weights every result and every goal by where the opponent sat in the table, so five wins over the bottom of the table score below five over the top.

    0/5Watford
    Clean Sheetslast 5 games
    Burnley1/5
    3/5Watford
    Failed to Scorelast 5 games
    Burnley0/5
    0.8Watford
    Goals For per game
    Burnley1.3
    1.9Watford
    Goals Against per game
    Burnley1.7
    2.3Watford
    Yellow Cards per game
    Burnley1.6
    0.0Watford
    Red Cards per game
    Burnley0.2
    0Watford
    Win Streakmatches
    Burnley1
    Season averages • Watford: 10 matches • Burnley: 10 matches • Refreshed weekly
    Watford
    Watford
    Poor1.7/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LWLLL
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    2/5
    Clean sheet
    0/5
    Scored in
    2/5
    Burnley
    Burnley
    Mixed4.1/10
    Form score, last 10 matches
    LDLDW
    Over 2.5 goals
    3/5
    BTTS
    4/5
    Clean sheet
    1/5
    Scored in
    5/5
    Last 5 meetings
    1W - 3D - 6L from Watford's perspective
    • 10 Oct 2026Watford0-4Burnley
    • 18 Apr 2025Watford1-2Burnley
    • 21 Dec 2024Burnley2-1Watford
    • 14 Feb 2023Burnley1-1Watford
    • 12 Aug 2022Watford1-0Burnley
    Watford
    Watford
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsBurnley0-4L
    • 18 Sept 2026vsBristol City1-0L
    • 12 Sept 2026vsStoke City1-2L
    • 08 Sept 2026vsPreston2-1W
    • 05 Sept 2026vsWest Brom1-0L
    Burnley
    Burnley
    Last 5 matches
    • 10 Oct 2026vsWatford0-4W
    • 19 Sept 2026vsDerby1-1D
    • 12 Sept 2026vsSwansea3-1L
    • 08 Sept 2026vsWrexham1-1D
    • 05 Sept 2026vsBristol City1-2L
    PosTeamPts
    18Sheffield United9
    19Portsmouth8
    20Watford8
    21Cardiff City7
    22Derby County5
    23Preston North End4
    24Burnley4
    Updated daily

    Watford vs Burnley: form and season numbers

    Watford take a form score of 1.7 out of 10 into this Championship fixture, against 4.1 for Burnley. Watford have 1 win and 4 defeats in their last 5, while Burnley have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in theirs. Across the season Watford average 0.8 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game, Burnley 1.3 and 1.7. Watford have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their matches this season, Burnley in 20%. In their last 10 meetings Watford have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6. Watford sit 20th on 8 points, Burnley 24th on 4.

    Form, head-to-head and season statistics are free to read. The model's predictions for this fixture are in the cards above.

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